Prediction market guides and analysis.
How contracts price, how orders fill, what venues list, and how to read sports and election markets. Plain English, no guaranteed picks.
Strait of Hormuz Shipping Markets: What a Transit-Call Contract Counts
Kalshi’s weekly ladder pays on IMF PortWatch ship counts. Several rungs can win at once, and a ceasefire contract is a different event.
College Football Playoff Rankings Are Not a Championship Price
The first 2026 rankings air November 3. A top-25 slot, a December playoff bid, and a title contract settle on different facts.
League of Legends Worlds 2026: Series Prices vs. the Championship
Knockouts start November 3. A best-of-five series and the November 14 final are different contracts, even when they name the same team.
F1 Prediction Markets: Race Winner, Podium, and Title Are Different Bets
Verstappen won the 2026 Mexico City Grand Prix. That classification does not settle a podium line or a championship contract.
Senate Swing-State Map Markets: What “None” Actually Means
The busiest election board pays on an exact set of seven states. None does not mean Republicans win zero Senate seats.
2026 World Series Prediction Markets: How to Read the Prices
The Brewers are in and their AL opponent is not. Learn how championship, game, correct-score, and futures contracts differ before Game 1.
NBA Prediction Markets: 2026–27 Opening Night Guide
Three games open the NBA season on October 20. Here is how to separate game winner, spread, total, and championship contracts.
Fed Rate Decision Prediction Markets: October 2026 Guide
Read the October FOMC schedule, basis-point outcome buckets, implied probabilities, settlement rules, and executable prices.
Bitcoin Prediction Markets: How Price Targets and Deadlines Work
BTC threshold, touch, range, and up-or-down contracts can settle differently. The source, clock, candle, and boundary explained.
Prediction Market Combo Contracts Explained
How all-leg payouts, joint probability, correlation, costs, settlement rules, and reported notional volume shape combo contracts.
What Does 60 Cents Mean in Prediction Markets?
A 60-cent contract implies about a 60% chance and pays $1 if correct. The payout, profit, odds conversion, spread, and fees explained.
Prediction Market Limit Orders vs. Market Orders
Control the price or prioritize speed? Learn immediate execution, partial fills, slippage, and maker-versus-taker costs.
Prediction Market Liquidity, Spread and Slippage
Why a market can display 60% while an immediate buyer pays 63—and how order-book depth changes a larger trade.
How Prediction Markets Resolve: Settlement Rules
The wording and named resolution source—not the headline—decide whether a Yes or No contract pays.
Prediction Markets vs. Polls: Election Odds Explained
A poll estimates voter preferences. A market prices the chance of a defined outcome. Here is how to read both without mixing them up.
2026 midterm markets, one month out: House, Senate, and the close races
Election Day is November 3. On October 3 the House was a low-90s price and the Senate was the market still in the mid-60s. How to read both, and which races were still near a coin flip.
MLB Division Series 2026: how to read a series price
Four best-of-five series opened October 3. A series price is not Game 1, and a World Series future is a third market entirely.
American odds to cents: the 2026 Division Series prices, converted
Brewers -180 is about 64 cents before the book’s margin. The formula, the four series, and why the two sides add up to more than 100.
College football Week 5, 2026: the games that move a title price
Ohio State at Iowa and Miami at Clemson headline October 3. A national-title price can move even when the No. 1 team is idle.
NFL Week 4, 2026: what an 0-3 start does to a playoff price
Five teams opened 0-3, the most since 2021. A Sunday game price and a playoff price are answering different questions.
College football on prediction markets: what Kalshi and Polymarket actually list (2026)
Weekly game contracts, win-total ladders, conference and title futures. How a contract price works, and where the two venues differ.
Polypick is an analysis tool, not betting advice. No outcome is guaranteed. 18+. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, call 1-800-GAMBLER.